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Author SHA1 Message Date
0e7c825215 dilil-lul 2025-05-28 14:54:03 +01:00
6b55adbaed iran analog 2024 2024-10-25 12:55:17 +01:00
d140b845a0 kazakhstan pics 2024-10-09 12:21:30 +01:00
8f15741c78 new film roll 2024-10-09 12:06:15 +01:00
a1189d7f9b remark42 for comments 2024-10-08 17:10:30 +01:00
f8b6c73625 global capitalism: terminé 2024-09-05 11:53:17 +01:00
002dc74996 global capitalism: 14. Le socialism dans de numbreux pays 2024-08-06 22:01:10 +01:00
153 changed files with 897 additions and 20 deletions

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title: Babataher.jpg
date: 2024-10-09
categories: art
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![Babataher](/img/arts/dresden-prague-iran-2024/Babataher.jpg)
<span class='image-details'>Babataher</span>

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title: Belfast_000512350018.jpg
date: 2024-10-09
categories: art
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![Belfast](/img/arts/dresden-prague-iran-2024/Belfast_000512350018.jpg)
<span class='image-details'>Belfast</span>

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![Belfast](/img/arts/dresden-prague-iran-2024/Belfast_000512350022.jpg)
<span class='image-details'>Belfast</span>

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![Belfast](/img/arts/dresden-prague-iran-2024/Belfast_000512350026.jpg)
<span class='image-details'>Belfast</span>

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<span class='image-details'>Belfast</span>

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![Belfast](/img/arts/dresden-prague-iran-2024/Belfast_000512350032.jpg)
<span class='image-details'>Belfast</span>

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date: 2024-10-09
categories: art
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![Bobby Sands](/img/arts/dresden-prague-iran-2024/Bobby-Sands.jpg)
<span class='image-details'>Bobby Sands</span>

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date: 2024-10-09
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<span class='image-details'>Dresden</span>

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<span class='image-details'>Dresden</span>

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<span class='image-details'>Dresden</span>

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<span class='image-details'>Grandmother's old room</span>

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<span class='image-details'>Home</span>

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categories: art
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<span class='image-details'>Kazakhstan</span>

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<span class='image-details'>Kazakhstan</span>

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categories: art
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<span class='image-details'>Let me tell you a story</span>

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date: 2024-10-09
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<span class='image-details'>Prague</span>

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<span class='image-details'>Prague</span>

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<span class='image-details'>Prague</span>

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<span class='image-details'>Prague</span>

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<span class='image-details'>Prague</span>

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<span class='image-details'>Prague</span>

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<span class='image-details'>Prague</span>

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<span class='image-details'>Prague</span>

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<span class='image-details'>Somewhere in Tehran</span>

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<span class='image-details'>Somewhere in Tehran</span>

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date: 2024-10-25
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<span class='image-details'>Bazaar e Tabriz</span>

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<span class='image-details'>Bazaar e Tabriz</span>

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<span class='image-details'>Bazaar e Tabriz</span>

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<span class='image-details'>Bistoon</span>

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<span class='image-details'>Bistoon</span>

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<span class='image-details'>Bistoon</span>

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layout: post
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date: 2024-10-25
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---
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<span class='image-details'>Cowboy from Hamadan</span>

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<span class='image-details'>Ganjname, Hamadan</span>

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<span class='image-details'>Hamadan</span>

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layout: post
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<span class='image-details'>Hamadan</span>

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layout: post
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<span class='image-details'>Hamadan</span>

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layout: post
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<span class='image-details'>Hamadan</span>

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layout: post
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<span class='image-details'>Hamadan</span>

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layout: post
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<span class='image-details'>Iran</span>

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layout: post
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<span class='image-details'>Iran</span>

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<span class='image-details'>Tabriz</span>

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layout: post
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<span class='image-details'>Tabriz</span>

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layout: post
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date: 2024-10-25
categories: art
---
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<span class='image-details'>Taq e Bostan</span>

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layout: post
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date: 2024-10-25
categories: art
---
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<span class='image-details'>Taq e Bostan</span>

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layout: post
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---
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<span class='image-details'>Taq e Bostan</span>

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@ -328,30 +328,144 @@ Critique: la protection des industries naissantes crée des produits coüteux, g
La majeure partie de pays adopteraient ISI, sauf quelques-uns: Hong Kong, Corée du Sud, Taiwan, et Singapore essaient a développer des [industries orientées vers l'exportation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Export-oriented_industrialization). Le Corée du Sud et Taiwan avaient accès au marché américain.
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# 14. Le socialism dans de numbreux pays
USSR beat US to space with Sputnik. 1939, Socialism only in one country: Soviet Union. The largest nation but only 8% of world population. A major power but still semi-industrial. By 1959 a significant minority of deveoping nations and China, the largest nation, were socialist. India was politically allied with Soviet Union.
1939: L'URSS a battu les États-Unis dans l'espace avec Spoutnik. La socialisme n'existais que dans un seule pays: l'Union soviétique. La plus grande nation, mais seulement 8% de la population mondiale. Une puissance majeure, mais encore semi-industrielle. En 1959 une minorité significative de pays en développement et la Chine (la plus grande nation) étaient socialistes. L'inde était politiquement allié à l'URSS.
Asian and European communist states tried to copy Stalins model, although with variations and adaptations
Les pays communistes d'Asie et d'Europe essaient d'imiter le modèle de Staline, mais avec des variations et des adaptations.
After Stalin died in 1953 more variations and diversity among communist states flourished, some softening central planning while China radicalised further. Khrushchevs rise with the idea of reform instead of Stalins “perversion of socialist ideas” was welcomed in SU and European countries. Popular grievances in communist states: Berlin June 1953, Hungary and Poland 1956. Prioritisation of industry over consumer goods (including housing) and agriculture of primary reasons.
Après la mort de Staline en 1953, plus des variations et diversite prosperaient entre les états communistes, certains assouplissaient la planification central, tandis que la Chine s'est encore radicalisée. L'ascension de Khrouchtchev et ses idées réformistes au lieu de la "perversion des idées socialistes" de Staline a été bien accueillie.
Population also saw the prosperity of the west, “Is it not better to have good goulash?” started “goulash communism” shifting resources to consumer goods, housing and better wages. From 1953 to 1957 real wages in Eastern Europe rose by 30-60 percent. Also raised agricultural prices to improve earnings. Improved standards of living.
Griefs populaires dans les États communites: Berlin June 1953, Hongrie et Pologne 1956. La prioritisation d'industries par rapport aux biens de consommation et agricole.
Still problems with economy: too centralised, lack of incentives.
La population a également vu la prospérité de l'Occident: "Is it not better to have good goulash" a commencé "goulash communisme", déplacer les resources vers les biens de consommation. De 1953 à 1957 les salaires réels augmentaient de 30 à 60 pour cent. Également augmentait les prix des produits agricoles pour améliorer les salaires. Ameliorait du niveau de vie.
Ministries for each industry (e.g. steel, chemicals, etc.) and they were separate empires trying to protect their own interests. A steel factory with another factory that could supply its needs beside it had to ask Moscow for its supplies instead.
Il y avait encore des problèmes avec l'économie: trop centralisée, manque d'incitations.
Khrushchev tried decentralising to some extent, Brezhnev-Kosygin reverted it in 1964 but still more authority to local managers.
Il y avait des ministries pour chaque l'industrie (acier, chimie, etc.) et ils étaient des empires séparés, essayant de protéger leurs propres intérêts. Une aciérie dont dont une usine voisine disposait des fournitures ncessaires, devait demander des fournitures à Moscou.
Incentives: what is reward of good production? How is it even measured? Prices are fixed, monetary rewards are shunned as causes of inequality and quantity does not mean success. Central control useful to bring countries to industrialisation but after that hard to encourage productivity without incentives.
Khrouchtchev essayait de décentraliser dans une certaine mesure, mais Brezhnev-Kosygin l'a annulé en 1964, même si les gestionnaires locaux ont quand même gagné plus d'autorité.
USSR and other countries started experimenting with market-oriented forms and opening trade to the world. By 1970s most Hungarian prices set by supply and demand.
Incitations: qu'est-ce que la récompense d'une bonne production? Comment est-il mesuré? Les prix sont fixes, et les récompenses monétaires sont boudées car elles sont une cause d'inégalité. La quantité ne signifie pas non plus le succés. La planification centrale a été utile pour industrialiser, mais aprés il est difficile d'encourager la productivité sans des incitations.
Cuban revolution hit a wall of US antagonism, Guatemalas overthrow in response to mildly nationalistic measures a case in point.
l'URSS et d'autres pays ont commencé à expérimenter l'ouverture de marchés au monde. En 1970, la plupart des prix hongrois étaient fixés par l'offre et la demande.
Communist states had better social services and lower hunger levels, they had chosen equity and economic diversification over specialisation and rapid growth.
La révolution cubaine confrontée à l'antagonisme des États-Unis. Le renversement du Guatemala en réponse à des mesures légèrement nationalistes.
For 25 years after 1948, centrally planned economies did better than capitalist developing nations: Eastern Europe > Western Europe, China > India,
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Les pays communistes avaient de meilleurs services sociaux, et des niveaux de faim plus faibles: ils avaient choisi l'égalité et la diversification plutôt que la spécialisation et la croissance rapid.
Pendant 25 ans apres 1948, les économies plannifiées ont mieux réussi que les pays capitalistes en développement. Europe de l'Est > Europe de l'Ouest, Chine > Inde
# 15. Le fin de système du Bretton Woods
Un valeur haut de US dollar signifait que les produits americains ont ete plus coutaux, donce il y avait plus des importations et moins des exportations.
En 1971, Nixon a pris dollar dor (off), et le valeur de dollar a baissé 10%. Egalement à imposée un impôt 10% sur les importations. En 1973 un autre dévaluation de dollar par 10%. Le système du Bretton Woods était mort.
Le croissance dindustrie et manufacturer en Japan et Europe occidentaux signifiait plus de concurrence entre les manufacturers dEtats Unis et eux.
Défi américain https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jean-Jacques_Servan-Schreiber?wprov=sfti1#Le_d%C3%A9clic_du_D%C3%A9fi_am%C3%A9ricain
ITT essayait renverser de démocratie de Chile. Restrictions sur foreign direct investment (investissement étranger direct)
Les lacunes dISI: le besoin dimportation de matériaux primaires pour industrialisation. Le besoin dexportation pour gagner de largent, mais le taux de change surévalué augmentait les prix des produites locales et le taux dexportation également décourageaient lexportation. Les prêts netaient pas facilement disponible. Il y avait des cycles de déséquilibres: exporter et limiter les exportations.
Les pays dISI avaient un “income gap” et deux mode eeconomie dans un pays: un parti industrialisé, un parti rural et agricole.
Le pays exportateurs avaient besoin de maintenir le salaires en bas, a maintenir leurs compétitivité
Les soviets et les pays communistes “fell behind” en technologie et ils ont commencé importer des usines technologique de loccident.
# 16. Globalisation 1973-2000
Apres 1970 et le bas de systeme Bretton Woods, léconomie mondiale grandie. Le grandie de pays industrielles signifiait un besoin de plus de matériaux primaires, donc les pays en développement pouvaient exporter plus, et les prix de produits augmentaient.
OPEC a choquée le monde par un augmentation de prix du petrol. Un prix haut du petrol également était un façon pour les Etats-Unis a aider leur allies: Iran et Saudi Arabia. Mais en fin, cela a commencé la plus forte récession en 1974-1975
Un crise de classe ouvrière. Plus des parties socialistes rejoindraient le gouvernement en Europe.
Un autre choque de prix du petrol en 1979-1980, la revolution en Iran et le guerre entre Iran-Iraq a aggravé la situation.
Le gouvernements essaient créer plus des emplois publique
Taux dintérêt réels négatifs: emprunter pour financer des programmes sociaux
Le stagnation de loccident signifiait un réduction dexportation de pays en développement, en plus de choquée du petrol
Plus de polarisation entre loccident et lorient (Afghanistan, Vietnam, Iran), et plus des troubles sociaux
Volcker à la tête de la réserve fédérale: inflation maîtrisée
Chine reformait vers capitalism et le marche mondial, et lUnion soviétique sest effondrée sous Gorbachev
Un augmentation de déficit budgétaire en les Etats-Unis (Reagan) et dautre pays. Cette déficit na pas améliorer de croissance économique. Plutôt, les conservatives ont limité le programmes sociaux de gouvernement par le maintenir de déficit.
Volcker:
The more starry-eyed Reaganauts argued that reducing taxes would provide a kind of magic elixir for the economy that would make the deficits go away, or at least not matter... But some of their arguments made me wonder why we bothered to collect taxes at all. The more realistic advisers (everything is relative) apparently thought the risk of a ballooning defieit was a reasonable price to pay for passing their radical program; any damage could be repaired later, helped by a novel theory that the way to keep spending down was not by insisting taxes be adequate to pay for it but by scaring the Congress and the American people with deficits."
David Stockman, le directeur de le Bureau de la gestion et du budget de Reagan, a vu avec alarme: "what we got was $1.5 trillion worth of cumulative deficits, radical deterioration of our internal and external financial health, and a political system that became so impaired, damaged, fatigued, and bloodied by coping with it year after year that it now functions like the parliament of a banana republic."
1970s: inflation élevée et croissante
1980s: inflation contrôlée, mais un croissance de déficit budgétaire
1990s: déficits comblés
Plus des integrations économique dans 1980s et 1990s: lUnion Européenne, NAFTA, Mercosur, etc.
Les crises de monnaies: mark dAllemangne, et [Mexico, Le “tequila effect”](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexican_peso_crisis?wprov=sfti1)
Le cycle dAsie oriental: croissance des investissements étrangers -> augmentation de la valeur de la monnaie -> plus difficile à exporter -> plus dinflation -> la peur et la spéculation de dévaluation de la monnaie -> vendre la monnaie - dévaluation
Assume a speculator goes to a Thai bank, borrows 24 billion baht, which, at the original exchange rate, can be converted into $1 billion. A week later the exchange rate falls; instead of there being 24 baht to the dollar, there are now 40 baht to the dollar: He takes $600 million, converting it back to baht, getting 24 billion baht to repay the loan. The remaining $400 million is his profit—a tidy return for one week's work, and the investment of little of his own money... As perceptions that a devaluation is imminent grow, the chance to make money becomes irresistible and speculators from around the world pile in to take advantage of the situation." - Joseph Stiglitz
# 17. Les mondialistes victorieux
[Mahathir-Soros and la crise économique asiatique](https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crise_%C3%A9conomique_asiatique)
Le progrès de la technologie encourageait lintégration économique mondiale: transport et communication étaient pas cher. Plus dintangible produits comme logiciels également étaient difficiles à empêcher du commerce transfrontalier. Technologie avancée requise des investissements et des marchés à grand échelle. Mais surtout, il y a eu une forte croissance de léconomie mondiale.
Il y a eu également un changement dopinion publique et académique sur le sujet de la gestion gouvernemental de léconomie: plus de gens étaient favorables à une limitation de limplication du gouvernement. [Monetarisme](https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mon%C3%A9tarisme?wprov=sfti1)
Cela a conduit à davantage de privatisation
[Le consensus de Washington](https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consensus_de_Washington?wprov=sfti1)
Le sources du passage a la “monetarisme”:
1. Il y avait plus des enterprises et des industries qui voulaient lintégration économique mondiale
2. Les gens étaient préoccupés par le chǒmage, linflation et la lenteur de la croissance
# 18. Les pays se rattrapent
Lintegration de la marché et le disintegration de la production
Plus de specialisation des pays
Les investissements internationaux exigeaient également de la discipline de la part des nations
Tres tres interessant: [Fernando Henrique Cardoso](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fernando_Henrique_Cardoso?wprov=sfti1)
# 19. Les pays prennent du retard
Des pays soviétiques et dautres pays en développement et pauvres ont été déçus, leurs économies se sont contractées
# 20. La mondialisation en difficulté
https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manifestations_de_1999_%C3%A0_Seattle?wprov=sfti1
Modèle de Mundell-Fleming: https://fr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mod%C3%A8le_de_Mundell-Fleming?wprov=sfti1
“Le prix Chinois”: impossible pour les producteurs américains de concurrencer les chinois — une course verse le bas
With economic globalization [wrote one umbrella organization] diversity is fast disappearing. The goal of the global economy is that all coun tries should be homogenized... • [E]conomic globalization and institutions like the World Bank and the WTO promote a specific kind of homogenizing development that frees the largest corporations in the world to invest and operate in every market, everywhere. For these agencies and corporations, diversity is not a primary value: efficiency is.
Diversity is an enemy because it requires differentiated sales appeal. What corporations love is creating the same values, the same tastes, using the same advertising, selling the same products, and driving out small local competitors. Mass marketers prefer homogenized consumers.!
Globalisation est autocratique et hypocrite
Autocratique parce que les Etats-Unis, lUE et le Japon écrivent les règles
Hypocrite parce que ces pays augmentent leurs programmes protectionnistes et subsidisation pour leurs agricoles, tout en prêchant la liberté du marché aux autres
# 21. Conclusion
La leçon de lhistoire du capitalisme: 1. Les économies fonctionnent mieux lorsquelles sont ouvertes sur le monde, 2. Les économies ouvertes fonctionnent mieux lorsque leurs gouvernements sattaquent aux sources dinsatisfaction à légard du capitalisme mondiale
Le défi de la capitalisme mondial est de combiner lintegration internationaux et les gouvernements politiquement réactive et socialement responsable.

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